Preview of WCC 2024… Ding-Gukesh
The 2024 World Chess Championship (WCC 2024) will take place in Singapore starting November 25th and lasting three weeks until December 15th. The match will feature China’s World Champion Ding Liren (Lizhen) against India’s Dommaraju Gukesh. The two most populous countries will join the millions following the match with great anticipation as the match features one of the brightest young stars in the game today in Gukesh.
The defending champion in Ding reached #2 in the world years ago, building a streak of 100 games without a loss. He carried this stability into the Candidates match, and due to a series of events, beat Ian Nepomniachtchi to become the 17th World Champion. Shortly after the match, he began to suffer from health issues (COVID-19), which affected his play. Some of it appears to be psychological as well.
There are some reports from David Llada about a broken relationship, but Ding has not made a public statement. There are reports that two of his afflictions are reportedly depression and the effects of insomnia. This is undoubtedly a serious problem for an elite chess player who would require hours of intense focus. A poorly rested player will certainly have lapses of attention in the latter stages, which has been evident in Ding’s recent games.
after which Carlsen expressed concern for the World Champion.
Can Ding Remain the King?
Many have written Ding off because of his sluggish play in the past year. He goes into the match rated lower than the challenger (2728 vs. 2783) and admits he may be the underdog. Veselin Topalov talked about the same 60-point Elo difference between him and Vladimir Kramnik, yet he still lost. Match play is very different and the difference in Elo ratings will not mean much in this match. One player of note who has made balanced comments about the match is Fabiano Caruana.
Caruana knows a few things about championship matches, having played Carlsen in the 2018 match in London. In fact, Caruana also predicted that Arjun Erigaisi (now #2 at 2809) would be the Indian who would break through the ranks, although Gukesh has a chance to be the first of the crew to win the world title. Caruana also gave balanced remarks during a Q&A session during the Olympiad:
One player who has given his opinion is Garry Kasparov. He gives his opinion on a wide range of topics and is known to take unpopular views on many subjects. He was critical of Carlsen in his bolting the cycle and also his handling of the Hans Niemann controversy. Lately he weighed in on the World Championship match and gave the following quote:
I don’t treat this (Gukesh vs. Ding) as a World Championship match. For me, a World Championship was always a match for the title of best player in the world.
~Garry Kasparov, 13th World Champion
Video by Sport Today (India)
Is this the REAL Championship?
We all remember how professional boxing was with many organizations claiming to have the heavyweight title… WBA, WBC, WBO, and IBF. It was a joke. The chess world also remembers the fracture after Garry Kasparov led a split from FIDE. Fast forward… the title has been unified for almost 20 years. So yes, this is the real chess championship. Thankfully, it’s the only one we have.
Kasparov asserts that he cannot see this as a legitimate title match because the strongest player is not competing. Let’s look at a bit of history. Kasparov is a legendary figure who bolted the championship cycle and created a vacuum lasting more than a decade (1993-2006). We all remember the “FIDE champions” between 1999-2004 as somewhat of a blot on chess tradition.
Kasparov took his #1 status with him and set up the Professional Chess Association (PCA) with the idea of creating an alternative path for his defacto title. His abandonment created a devalued FIDE title, and many do not consider the titles (won under the FIDE knockout format) legitimate.
Now, we have this branch in the line of champions that features Anatoly Karpov (1993), Alexander Khalifman (1999), Viswanathan Anand (2000), Ruslan Ponomariov (2002), and Rustam Kasimdzhanov (2004), Veselin Topalov (2005). While all were strong Grandmasters, no one accepted them as world champions because Kasparov was still the best player until he retired in 2005. So this may be the basis of Kasparov’s above statement.
While Kramnik (who defeated Kasparov in 2000 and defended against Peter Leko in 2004) claimed to be the official champion, Topalov claimed the FIDE line after winning the FIDE World Championship tournament in San Luis, Mexico. Kramnik cited the Prague Agreement and claimed he was the rightful World Champion. During negotiations for reunification, Topalov, then the #1 player, rebutted…
“There’s a big difference in our ratings,” Topalov stressed. “In chess 60 Elo points means a different class altogether. If Vladimir was offered to play against someone 60 Elo points below himself he’d simply burst out laughing. If there is going to be a Topalov-Kramnik match, it will be on purely commercial basis. I do not believe we can play for the title because I’ve already won it here in San Luis. A Topalov-Kramnik match for the title is out of question, because FIDE has organised a two-year cycle for the world championship, analogous to the one we had in San Luis, where eight qualifiers will fight for the title. Thus the tournament shall determine the new holder of the Crown. That is the plan.”
~Veselin Topalov on Kramnik
Topalov was trolling at the time, but that led to tension later on. Finally, an agreement was reached and Kirsan Ilyumzhinov announced the 2006 match. Amidst the “toiletgate” cheating controversy, Kramnik defeated Topalov, unifying the titles. Anand became the champion after beating Kramnik in 2008, defending against Topalov in 2010, and defending against Gelfand in 2012, in a match format.
By the way, Kasparov threw another barb before the 2012 Anand-Gelfand match.
“Nobody should be offended, it is just a fact, but it’s the first time in a long period of time that a World Championship match, with the official champion and official challenger, doesn’t have anything to do with fighting for the title of the strongest chess player on the planet.”
~Garry Kasparov on Anand-Gelfand (interview)
Carlsen beat Anand in 2013, defending the title four times (Anand, Sergei Karjakin, Fabiano Caruana, Ian Nepomniachtchi). After Nepomniachtchi won the Candidates again to earn the right to a rematch, Carlsen announced that he would not defend his title. This created the situation we have today.
Nevertheless, Ding-Gukesh is indeed the real world championship match, despite Carlsen choosing to relinquish his title. Ding was once World #2 and Gukesh is world #4 now. While neither winner will have the marketing cachet, both will undoubtedly hold the title in high esteem. Viswanathan Anand held his reign with honor. There were no controversies, negotiation snags, or threats of walking away. He even played the challenger Veselin Topalov in his own country! He has been a most noble champion and a global brand ambassador, leading a chess revolution in India.
Here is Anand’s answer about the match.
“It’s good that Gukesh can approach the match with confidence. But he’s smart enough to know that World Championships are won, not elected.”
~Viswanathan Anand
In All Fairness…
When vacating a title, the remaining players are left to pick up the pieces of a fractured cycle. Ding had no role in setting up the cycle and did not create the rules by which he could play Nepomnianchtchi. He also had no influence over Carlsen’s decision to quit the cycle only months before the match and force FIDE into a difficult situation. Whatever we think of FIDE, Ding simply did his best to make the Candidates when he was unable to travel out of China. There were so many circumstances that he did not control.
Ding qualified by rating after playing several tournaments in China (during a lockdown) to remain on the list. Ding won a last-round encounter against Hikaru Nakamura in thrilling fashion and leaped into second behind Nepomniachtchi. After that, Carlsen announced that he would not defend his title. Ding (the runner-up) was slotted into the title match as the co-challenger. He then beat Nepomniachtchi for the championship while ranked #3 in the world.
Ding Liren, the 17th World Chess Champion
Photo by Stev Bonhage
Kasparov spoke out on that match as well, but what does he want FIDE to do? Carlsen officially quit giving FIDE only months to determine a solution. Throwing the world crown into chaos has never been a good idea as far as the image of chess. It is with a bit of irony that Carlsen wanted to entertain the knockout as a possible title format.
Given that there is a young crop of stars emerging, it may very well be that the system will fix itself. There are so many young stars who will soon rise to replace today’s elite players only in their 30s. However, Ding and Gukesh should be afforded all the respect of a world championship match. We have been left with nothing else.
A Case for Both
Most chess players say Gukesh will win because of his recent tournament form and Ding’s poor performances. It’s a bit more complicated. We may also remember that neither Kramnik’s nor Anand’s tournament results were not sterling during their reigns. Kramnik was even called “drawnik.” Kasparov made a statement that Anand should consider retiring. It was another reckless comment later disproven as Anand continued to play at a high level and won the Candidates for a rematch with Carlsen.
In the Ding-Gukesh match, there are a different set of variables at play. Losing a game can quickly change the mood of a match. We saw Gukesh blunder against Nordibek Abdusattarov in the last round of the Chennai Olympiad and take a brief rating dive only to rebound and find his form. He led his team to Olympiad gold as the top board. Ding recognizes that he may be the “underdog,” but is he taking a page out of Sun Tzu’s The Art of War?
“Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.”
~Sun Tzu, The Art of War
If we look at the last year, it appears that Gukesh is poised to win; it’s not so simple as looking at the current form of tournament play. While neither country will spare any expense to help their compatriot win the title, there are some factors to consider for both:
Ding Liren (Lizhen)
- EXPERIENCE – Ding has much more experience at the elite level than Gukesh. This is the same player we admired for refuting all of Kramnik’s lines in the postmortem. In addition, he has match experience, which is far different from the tournament play.
- LESS PRESSURE – Ding has absolutely no pressure in playing this match. He wasn’t expected to be in the Candidates, much less win the title. His rhetoric, whether sandbagging or not, has caused many fans to believe he’ll lose badly.
- FEWER EXPECTATIONS – This goes with the above factor. There are very low expectations for Ding, with nearly every pundit suggesting a win for Gukesh. There are not many who predict a scenario in which Ding may win.
- ENVIRONMENT – Ding may be more familiar with the Singaporean environment than in Europe (i.e., Madrid, Spain), where he struggled to adjust during his match with Nepomniachtchi… even switching hotels twice.
- NERVES – At his best, Ding is generally very steady and thus, incredibly hard to beat. He tends to have a very even temperament, even when showing his vulnerability. To win a world championship while suffering from depression shows how focused he can be.
Dommaraju Gukesh
- SUPPORT TEAM – ChessBase India will be on-site, and the whole of India will be cheering for Gukesh. At the match against Nepomniachtchi, Ding appeared a bit isolated and even mentioned he felt lonely.
- MENTORSHIP – Having a World champion like Viswanathan Anand in your corner is definitely a big boost.
- YOUTH – While Gukesh does not appear to be a gym rat, his youth will serve him well as the games intensify.
- CONFIDENCE – Gukesh has been in great form, and his confidence has risen after such a successful summer. He is fully motivated in this match and has even hired a mental coach in Paddy Upton.
- CREATIVITY – This new generation plays chess differently. They are well-prepared and have tremendous creativity. This will be to Gukesh’s advantage due to his ability to create chances.
Let’s say that it will be a competitive match regardless of what “pundits” are saying. Ding may benefit from being in a more familiar environment and from his match experience. Even though Gukesh has some definite advantages in form, he has yet to prove himself in a match. We will see if maturity becomes a factor.
With Ding, nobody knows where he is in terms of his mental preparedness. The first few games will show us a lot. He sometimes sounds like he is trying to lower expectations by calling Gukesh the favorite and saying he is afraid of losing badly. If he is taking a page out of Sun Tze’s The Art of War, it may be that the world is in for a surprise.
Prediction: Ding wins +3-2=9!
Official Site: https://worldchampionship.fide.com/